Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.07
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
28%
2.93
6+ Goals
13%
8.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.86
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.25
X/1
17%
3.66
X/2
6%
12.05
X/X
9%
6.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.05
2/2
8%
9.2
2/X
6%
18.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.05 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
64%
-3.4pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.3pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
2.14/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.55
+12% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +35%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
406 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
21.8 Crosses 14.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Başakşehir FK
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.93 xG 0.61
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
423 Passes 273
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
24.01.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
28.09.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 4-0 HT 3-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
11.06.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-0 HT 2-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TÜK
19.04.2023 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 1-2 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
22.10.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
05.02.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-1 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
3-1
AWAY Başakşehir FK
1.14 xG 0.62
63% Ball Possession 37%
22 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 0
358 Passes 188
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
36 Box Touches 6
36 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe saw off Başakşehir FK 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 63% of the ball to Başakşehir FK's 37%, shots finished 22-2, expected goals 1.14 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.33 for Başakşehir FK.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir FK?

Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir FK in the Turkey - Super League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 60%, draw 21%, Başakşehir FK 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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