VPS 1-1 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 9 May 2026

VPS
1-1 HT 1-0
Gnistan
📅09/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2026

VPS vs Gnistan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.57
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.15
6+ Goals
9%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.57
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
13%
4.66
X/2
11%
7.75
X/X
8%
5.0
2/1
9%
23.1
2/2
13%
5.63
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

VPS v Gnistan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.50/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.18
-6% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
340 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
23.4 Crosses 16.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 3.3

VPS vs Gnistan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gnistan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.09 xG 0.84
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
353 Passes 262
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.08.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
18.06.2025 VPS VPS 0-0 HT 0-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
23.10.2024 VPS VPS 0-1 HT 0-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
04.08.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 3-0 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN
20.04.2024 VPS VPS 3-2 HT 2-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
16.10.2021 Gnistan Gnistan 1-4 HT 1-4 VPS VPS FINY

VPS 1-1 Gnistan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
1-1
AWAY Gnistan
1.18 xG 1.06
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
198 Passes 224
68% Pass Accuracy 68%
17 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH VPS vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS and Gnistan shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was VPS at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, VPS had 47% of the ball to Gnistan's 53%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.18 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for VPS and 1.17 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of VPS vs Gnistan?

VPS 1-1 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split VPS 48%, draw 23%, Gnistan 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (VPS) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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