VPS 0-1 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 23 Oct 2024

VPS
0-1 HT 0-0
Gnistan
📅23/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2024

VPS vs Gnistan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.63
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 25% vs market 22.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.69
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
14%
4.54
X/2
10%
7.31
X/X
8%
4.93
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
16%
5.22
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

VPS v Gnistan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.65/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.36
+29% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 77%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
21.6 Crosses 13.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 3.7

VPS vs Gnistan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gnistan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.55 xG 0.89
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
447 Passes 210
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
25 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.08.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 3-0 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN
20.04.2024 VPS VPS 3-2 HT 2-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
16.10.2021 Gnistan Gnistan 1-4 HT 1-4 VPS VPS FINY
18.07.2021 Gnistan Gnistan 2-0 HT 1-0 VPS VPS FİN2
12.05.2021 VPS VPS 2-0 HT 0-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
25.10.2020 VPS VPS 3-5 HT 3-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2

VPS 0-1 Gnistan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
0-1
AWAY Gnistan
0.64 xG 0.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 5
336 Passes 428
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH VPS vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan nicked a narrow win over VPS 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was VPS at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, VPS had 44% of the ball to Gnistan's 56%, shots finished 5-7, expected goals 0.64 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for VPS and 2.17 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of VPS vs Gnistan?

VPS 0-1 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split VPS 44%, draw 24%, Gnistan 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (VPS), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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