AE Larissa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 9 May 2026

AE Larissa
1-1 HT 1-1
Asteras Tripolis
📅09/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2025/2026

AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.48
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
15%
4.21
6+ Goals
8%
21.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.48 — our 36% vs market 32.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.02
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
11%
5.67
X/2
9%
5.62
X/X
15%
3.83
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
21%
3.96
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.5pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.0pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AE Larissa v Asteras Tripolis — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AE Larissa EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 37%
-11% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
0.88/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.20
-22% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
280 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
20.2 Crosses 17.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.0

AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AE Larissa
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.04 xG 1.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 Passes 294
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.04.2026 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 3-1 HT 1-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
14.03.2026 AE Larissa AE Larissa 1-1 HT 0-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
14.09.2025 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 2-2 HT 2-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
23.01.2021 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-0 HT 0-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
18.10.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 1-3 HT 0-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
07.06.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 1-2 HT 1-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN

AE Larissa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AE Larissa
1-1
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
0.85 xG 0.83
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 Passes 201
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AE Larissa and Asteras Tripolis couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, AE Larissa had 62% of the ball to Asteras Tripolis's 38%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 0.85 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Asteras Tripolis led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AE Larissa and 2.00 for Asteras Tripolis.

What was the final score of AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis?

AE Larissa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis in the Greece - Super League on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis?

Before kick-off our model rated an Asteras Tripolis win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split AE Larissa 34%, draw 30%, Asteras Tripolis 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Asteras Tripolis), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Asteras Tripolis) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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