Meksika 2-3 Brezilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 9 Jun 2024

Meksika
2-3 HT 0-1
Brezilya
📅09/06/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2024

Meksika vs Brezilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.34
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
55%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.87
2-3 Goals
35%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
31%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.17 — our 31% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
10.2
1/2
6%
22.3
1/X
4%
18.6
X/1
8%
12.85
X/2
17%
3.59
X/X
12%
6.14
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
31%
1.8
2/X
4%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
16%
+9.9pp
20%
Draw
20%
-0.3pp
54%
Away Win
64%
-9.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Meksika v Brezilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Meksika EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Brezilya EU Bookmakers 69%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
0.79/2.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.64/0.69
-22% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +51%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
232 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 495 · 87%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.3
12.5 Crosses 10.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.1

Meksika vs Brezilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Meksika
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Brezilya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.73 xG 2.90
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
306 Passes 315
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 40
23 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.07.2018 Brezilya Brezilya 2-0 HT 0-0 Meksika Meksika DK
07.06.2015 Brezilya Brezilya 2-0 HT 2-0 Meksika Meksika HAZ
17.06.2014 Brezilya Brezilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Meksika Meksika DK
19.06.2013 Brezilya Brezilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Meksika Meksika FKK
03.06.2012 Brezilya Brezilya 0-2 HT 0-2 Meksika Meksika HAZ
12.10.2011 Meksika Meksika 1-2 HT 1-0 Brezilya Brezilya HAZ

Meksika 2-3 Brezilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Meksika
2-3
AWAY Brezilya
0.38 xG 1.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
335 Passes 459
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Meksika vs Brezilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brezilya nicked a narrow win over Meksika 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Brezilya as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Meksika had 44% of the ball to Brezilya's 56%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.38 to 1.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brezilya's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brezilya led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Meksika and 1.33 for Brezilya.

What was the final score of Meksika vs Brezilya?

Meksika 2-3 Brezilya in the Friendlies on 09/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Meksika vs Brezilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brezilya win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Meksika 25%, draw 20%, Brezilya 54%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brezilya), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brezilya) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HAZ More Friendlies
9 Jun 2024
00:30 ABD vs Kolombiya Analysis →
21:45 Karadağ vs Gürcistan Analysis →
21:45 Slovakya vs Galler Analysis →
21:45 İtalya vs Bosna-Hersek Analysis →
22:15 Fransa vs Kanada Analysis →