Progreso 1-0 CA River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 9 Jun 2024

📅09/06/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
37%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-6.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
37%
Away Win
28%
+8.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 32%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
1.22/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.05
-5% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-1D-3L
AWAY CA River Plate
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
21.04.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 2-2 HT 1-1 Progreso Progreso URU
09.10.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
12.06.2021 CA River Plate CA River Plate 4-0 HT 3-0 Progreso Progreso URU
29.03.2021 CA River Plate CA River Plate 3-2 HT 2-0 Progreso Progreso URU
10.10.2020 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 0-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
06.11.2019 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-2 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
1-0
AWAY CA River Plate
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs CA River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso edged past CA River Plate 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Progreso made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Progreso had 44% of the ball to CA River Plate's 56%, shots finished 9-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA River Plate led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Progreso and 2.00 for CA River Plate.

What was the final score of Progreso vs CA River Plate?

Progreso 1-0 CA River Plate in the Uruguay - Premier League on 09/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs CA River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Progreso 38%, draw 25%, CA River Plate 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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