Sarpsborg 08 1-0 Viking — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - NM Cup, 9 Jul 2025

📅09/07/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.33
Over 2.5
61%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.07
2-3 Goals
36%
2.01
4-5 Goals
27%
2.84
6+ Goals
13%
7.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.42
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.9
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
15%
7.06
X/2
17%
5.4
X/X
8%
5.79
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
16%
2.93
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.9 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.9pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.9pp
43%
Away Win
43%
+0.0pp
39%
Under 2.5
39%
-0.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
61%
+0.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.5pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Viking EU Bookmakers 48%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
2.00/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/0.99
+35% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +59%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Viking
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.07 xG 1.55
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
369 Passes 353
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2025 Viking Viking 0-0 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
27.10.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-2 HT 1-1 Viking Viking NOR
01.04.2024 Viking Viking 1-0 HT 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
12.11.2023 Viking Viking 2-1 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
11.06.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-3 HT 0-1 Viking Viking NOR
16.10.2022 Viking Viking 0-1 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
1-0
AWAY Viking
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 squeezed past Viking 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Viking at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 38% of the ball to Viking's 62%, shots finished 6-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Viking led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.33 for Viking.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking?

Sarpsborg 08 1-0 Viking in the Norway - NM Cup on 09/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking?

Before kick-off our model rated an Viking win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 35%, draw 22%, Viking 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Viking) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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