Derry City 1-1 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.69
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
11.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.53
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
23.6
X/1
20%
3.29
X/2
5%
19.7
X/X
8%
6.71
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
5%
17.15
2/X
7%
24.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
72%
-9.3pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.2pp
15%
Away Win
9%
+6.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.2pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 12%
-8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -8%
1.38/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.17
-2% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +35%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
433 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
23.8 Crosses 14.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Dundalk
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.02 xG 0.91
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
279 Passes 277
70% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
31.05.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
05.04.2024 Derry City Derry City 4-1 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
01.09.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 1-3 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
15.05.2023 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
16.04.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 2-2 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
10.03.2023 Derry City Derry City 0-0 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
1-1
AWAY Dundalk
1.46 xG 0.88
77% Ball Possession 23%
23 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
454 Passes 89
84% Pass Accuracy 52%
46 Box Touches 8
49 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Derry City vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City and Dundalk couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Derry City at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Derry City had 77% of the ball to Dundalk's 23%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.46 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Derry City and 0.67 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Derry City vs Dundalk?

Derry City 1-1 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Derry City 63%, draw 22%, Dundalk 15%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Derry City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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