Derry City vs Dundalk Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derry City v Dundalk — Team-Based Signals
Derry City vs Dundalk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-3
HT 0-1
Derry City
İRL
3-0
HT 1-0
Dundalk
İRL
2-2
HT 0-1
Derry City
İRL
0-0
HT 0-0
Dundalk
İRL
Derry City 1-1 Dundalk — Actual Match Statistics
Derry City and Dundalk couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Derry City at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Derry City had 77% of the ball to Dundalk's 23%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.46 to 0.88.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Derry City and 0.67 for Dundalk.
What was the final score of Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City 1-1 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Derry City 63%, draw 22%, Dundalk 15%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.