Sassuolo 2-1 Cittadella — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.71
6+ Goals
12%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.22
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1
15%
3.84
X/2
9%
9.26
X/X
10%
4.98
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
11%
7.45
2/X
10%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Cittadella EU Bookmakers 24%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.21/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/2.28
-50% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
437 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 205 · 69%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
23.4 Crosses 19.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cittadella
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
16.03.2013 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
20.10.2012 Cittadella Cittadella 1-0 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
31.01.2012 Cittadella Cittadella 0-0 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
10.09.2011 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-0 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
05.03.2011 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 1-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
13.10.2010 Cittadella Cittadella 1-1 HT 1-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
2-1
AWAY Cittadella
1.98 xG 0.35
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
404 Passes 339
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
38 Box Touches 9
11 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Sassuolo vs Cittadella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo squeezed past Cittadella 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sassuolo as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sassuolo had 54% of the ball to Cittadella's 46%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.98 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sassuolo's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sassuolo and 0.50 for Cittadella.

What was the final score of Sassuolo vs Cittadella?

Sassuolo 2-1 Cittadella in the Italy - Cup on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo vs Cittadella?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 48%, draw 27%, Cittadella 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sassuolo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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