Genoa 1-0 Reggiana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.32
Draw
27%
4.81
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.06
No
46%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.99
6+ Goals
12%
9.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.52
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
22.7
X/1
18%
3.39
X/2
9%
19.5
X/X
11%
7.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
2/2
5%
15.95
2/X
8%
23.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
71%
-16.4pp
27%
Draw
18%
+9.2pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
44%
+9.4pp
46%
BTTS No
56%
-9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genoa EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Reggiana EU Bookmakers 14%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.73/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.87
+5% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +40%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
446 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
20.2 Crosses 12.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Reggiana
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 0.82
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
521 Passes 531
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2023 Genoa Genoa 2-1 HT 0-1 Reggiana Reggiana İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
1-0
AWAY Reggiana
2.39 xG 0.42
53% Ball Possession 47%
30 Total Shots 13
12 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
377 Passes 309
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
43 Box Touches 16
31 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Genoa vs Reggiana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genoa nicked a narrow win over Reggiana 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Genoa as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Genoa had 53% of the ball to Reggiana's 47%, shots finished 30-13, expected goals 2.39 to 0.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Genoa's control.

What was the final score of Genoa vs Reggiana?

Genoa 1-0 Reggiana in the Italy - Cup on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genoa vs Reggiana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genoa win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Genoa 55%, draw 27%, Reggiana 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genoa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Genoa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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