San Jose Earthquakes 5-0 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 26% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.79
1/2
11%
27.0
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
10%
5.83
X/2
11%
5.53
X/X
9%
4.79
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
15%
3.52
2/X
10%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
37%
Away Win
37%
-0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 40%
-45% / -45% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
1.38/2.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.25
-55% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +42%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.0
19.0 Crosses 43.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
5-0
AWAY Necaxa
2.59 xG 1.12
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
483 Passes 330
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 15
7 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH San Jose Earthquakes vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Jose Earthquakes cruised past Necaxa 5-0. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; San Jose Earthquakes found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 57% of the ball to Necaxa's 43%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.59 to 1.12.

What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Necaxa?

San Jose Earthquakes 5-0 Necaxa in the Concacaf League Cup on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 36%, draw 27%, Necaxa 37%. The final score 5-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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