St. Pauli 3-0 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
44%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
13%
8.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.62 — our 25% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.01
1/2
6%
20.3
1/X
9%
15.7
X/1
7%
9.9
X/2
12%
4.01
X/X
14%
6.26
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.05
2/X
5%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+7.0pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.2pp
44%
Away Win
57%
-13.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.3pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 62%
+58% / +58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -76% / -76%
4.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/4.00
+150% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / -72%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
3-0
AWAY Atalanta
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli cruised past Atalanta 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, St. Pauli had 48% of the ball to Atalanta's 52%, shots finished 9-13.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Atalanta?

St. Pauli 3-0 Atalanta in the Friendlies on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 28%, draw 28%, Atalanta 44%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atalanta) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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