Union Berlin 1-1 Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
34%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.33
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 25% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.19
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
13%
6.03
X/2
16%
5.1
X/X
11%
4.61
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
11%
3.31
2/X
12%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.5pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.1pp
34%
Away Win
39%
-5.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 43%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.59/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.87
+79% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +56%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
294 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
1-1
AWAY Real Sociedad
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin and Real Sociedad shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 43% of the ball to Real Sociedad's 57%, shots finished 14-8.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Real Sociedad?

Union Berlin 1-1 Real Sociedad in the Friendlies on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 37%, draw 29%, Real Sociedad 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Union Berlin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✓ BTTS Yes
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