Garliava 2-2 BFA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 9 Aug 2024

Garliava
2-2 HT 1-1
BFA
📅09/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
45%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+7.8pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.5pp
45%
Away Win
48%
-3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.3pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Garliava EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY BFA EU Bookmakers 52%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
0.70/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.57
-39% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -44%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Garliava
0W-1D-3L
AWAY BFA
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
16.03.2024 BFA BFA 1-0 HT 0-0 Garliava Garliava LIT1
08.11.2023 BFA BFA 2-0 HT 1-0 Garliava Garliava LIT1
01.07.2023 Garliava Garliava 1-1 BFA BFA LIT1
26.08.2022 Garliava Garliava 0-3 HT 0-1 BFA BFA LIT1
POST-MATCH Garliava vs BFA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Garliava and BFA shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was BFA at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, BFA led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Garliava and 1.75 for BFA.

What was the final score of Garliava vs BFA?

Garliava 2-2 BFA in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Garliava vs BFA?

Before kick-off our model rated an BFA win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Garliava 35%, draw 21%, BFA 45%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (BFA) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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