Portimonense vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Portimonense v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Portimonense vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-3
Portimonense
POK
1-1
HT 1-1
Portimonense
POR2
1-2
HT 0-1
Portimonense
PORLC
0-0
HT 0-0
Portimonense
POR2
Portimonense 2-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Portimonense edged past Penafiel 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Portimonense as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Portimonense had 53% of the ball to Penafiel's 47%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 1.61 to 0.54.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Portimonense and 1.17 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Portimonense vs Penafiel?
Portimonense 2-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 43%, draw 25%, Penafiel 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portimonense) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.