Vila Nova 1-1 Athletic Club — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 9 Sep 2025

📅09/09/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.48
Over 2.5
36%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.09
2-3 Goals
44%
1.73
4-5 Goals
14%
5.22
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-3.1pp
29%
Draw
32%
-2.3pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
64%
+0.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
36%
-0.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.9pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Club EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.27/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.09
-6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +69%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
20.7 Crosses 18.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Athletic Club
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.91 xG 1.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
305 Passes 277
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.05.2025 Athletic Club 0-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
1-1
AWAY Athletic Club
0.76 xG 0.57
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
240 Passes 379
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Athletic Club
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova and Athletic Club couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Vila Nova had 44% of the ball to Athletic Club's 56%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.76 to 0.57.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?

Vila Nova 1-1 Athletic Club in the Brazil - Serie B on 09/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 38%, draw 29%, Athletic Club 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vila Nova), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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