09/10/2024
·
20:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
1-0
Baztán vs Ontinena Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
42%
4-5
19%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
26%
Draw
28%
41%
Away Win
41%
57%
Under 2.5
50%
43%
Over 2.5
50%
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
54%
BTTS No
45%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Baztán v Ontinena — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Baztán
EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY
Ontinena
EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
45%
Ball Possession
55%
12
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
5
260 · 74%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
368 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Baztán vs Ontinena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Baztán and Ontinena couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Ontinena at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.
What was the final score of Baztán vs Ontinena?
Baztán 1-1 Ontinena in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 09/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Baztán vs Ontinena?
Before kick-off our model rated an Ontinena win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Baztán 33%, draw 26%, Ontinena 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ontinena), BTTS No went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Ontinena)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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