Villamuriel vs Aurrera de Vitoria Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Villamuriel v Aurrera de Vitoria — Team-Based Signals
Villamuriel squeezed past Aurrera de Vitoria 1-0.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Aurrera de Vitoria at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
What was the final score of Villamuriel vs Aurrera de Vitoria?
Villamuriel 1-0 Aurrera de Vitoria in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 09/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Villamuriel vs Aurrera de Vitoria?
Before kick-off our model rated an Aurrera de Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Villamuriel 20%, draw 25%, Aurrera de Vitoria 55%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.