Villamuriel 1-0 Aurrera de Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 9 Oct 2024

📅09/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.48
Draw
25%
3.72
Away Pick
55%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.91
Over
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
47%
4-5
17%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
5%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
39%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Aurrera de Vitoria win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
19%
+0.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
55%
Away Win
57%
-2.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villamuriel EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Aurrera de Vitoria EU Bookmakers 61%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
244 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Villamuriel vs Aurrera de Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villamuriel squeezed past Aurrera de Vitoria 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Aurrera de Vitoria at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

What was the final score of Villamuriel vs Aurrera de Vitoria?

Villamuriel 1-0 Aurrera de Vitoria in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 09/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villamuriel vs Aurrera de Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aurrera de Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Villamuriel 20%, draw 25%, Aurrera de Vitoria 55%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aurrera de Vitoria) ✗ BTTS Yes
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