09/10/2024
·
21:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-2
2nd Score
2-2
Gevora vs Pl. Sotavento Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
40%
4-5
28%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
24%
Draw
24%
30%
Away Win
19%
42%
Under 2.5
48%
58%
Over 2.5
52%
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
46%
BTTS No
49%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Gevora v Pl. Sotavento — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Gevora
EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY
Pl. Sotavento
EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
54%
Ball Possession
46%
13
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
376 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
292 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Gevora vs Pl. Sotavento
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Gevora and Pl. Sotavento shared the points in a 1-1 draw.
Our pre-match lean was Gevora at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Gevora vs Pl. Sotavento?
Gevora 1-1 Pl. Sotavento in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 09/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Gevora vs Pl. Sotavento?
Before kick-off our model rated a Gevora win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gevora 46%, draw 24%, Pl. Sotavento 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gevora), Over 2.5 went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Gevora)
✗ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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