Albirex Niigata 4-1 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 9 Oct 2024

📅09/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.81
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.07
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
16%
6.2
X/2
13%
5.31
X/X
11%
4.83
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
14%
3.28
2/X
6%
12.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
36%
Away Win
40%
-3.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -16%
2.77/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.86
+116% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -32%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.53 xG 1.61
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
493 Passes 409
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.09.2024 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 5-1 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
22.06.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-2 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
29.09.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 2-3 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
30.08.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-2 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JPK
11.03.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
09.08.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-2 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
4-1
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata swept aside Kawasaki Frontale 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Albirex Niigata found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 52% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 48%, shots finished 16-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Albirex Niigata and 2.17 for Kawasaki Frontale.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Albirex Niigata 4-1 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - League Cup on 09/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 38%, draw 27%, Kawasaki Frontale 36%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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