Kelty Hearts 2-0 Dumbarton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
41%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.1
6+ Goals
13%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 30% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+5.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.8pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kelty Hearts EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.21/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.48
-25% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
305 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
8.0 Crosses 3.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kelty Hearts
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Dumbarton
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
5 Corners 3
31.08.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-2 HT 1-1 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
09.09.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-3 HT 1-2 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İKCK
POST-MATCH Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kelty Hearts got the better of Dumbarton 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Dumbarton at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kelty Hearts had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Kelty Hearts and 1.50 for Dumbarton.

What was the final score of Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton?

Kelty Hearts 2-0 Dumbarton in the Scotland - 1st Division on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dumbarton win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kelty Hearts 35%, draw 23%, Dumbarton 41%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Dumbarton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dumbarton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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