Real Madrid 4-0 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
62%
1.3
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
5.66
2-3 Goals
38%
2.02
4-5 Goals
25%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.17
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.66 — our 24% vs market 13.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.49
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
21.85
X/1
24%
3.58
X/2
7%
19.35
X/X
7%
8.47
2/1
7%
20.9
2/2
5%
14.0
2/X
7%
21.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Real Madrid win — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.3pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.6pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+5.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +22%
2.15/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.74
+21% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
454 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
18.2 Crosses 15.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Osasuna
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.80 xG 0.74
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
542 Passes 296
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
37 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 2-4 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
07.10.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
06.05.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İSPK
18.02.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.10.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
20.04.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 1-3 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
4-0
AWAY Osasuna
3.06 xG 0.06
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 2
8 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 3
564 Passes 214
90% Pass Accuracy 74%
49 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid ran out comfortable winners over Osasuna 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Real Madrid had 68% of the ball to Osasuna's 32%, shots finished 18-2, expected goals 3.06 to 0.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Real Madrid and 0.83 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Osasuna?

Real Madrid 4-0 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 62%, draw 21%, Osasuna 17%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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