Osasuna 2-4 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 16 Mar 2024

Osasuna
2-4 HT 1-2
Real Madrid
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Osasuna vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.34
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
49%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.65
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 28% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
9.95
1/2
7%
22.7
1/X
6%
18.3
X/1
10%
12.4
X/2
20%
3.6
X/X
8%
5.83
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
1.85
2/X
11%
17.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
16%
+9.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.0pp
50%
Away Win
62%
-12.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Osasuna v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 66%
-12% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
0.83/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.07
-39% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +0%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 82%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.8
22.7 Crosses 18.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Osasuna vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.71 xG 2.43
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
282 Passes 568
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 40
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
06.05.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İSPK
18.02.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.10.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
20.04.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 1-3 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
27.10.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1

Osasuna 2-4 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
2-4
AWAY Real Madrid
0.72 xG 2.88
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 7
252 Passes 500
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 29
22 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid beat Osasuna 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Osasuna had 37% of the ball to Real Madrid's 63%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.72 to 2.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Osasuna and 2.00 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Real Madrid?

Osasuna 2-4 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 26%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 50%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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