Villarreal 3-0 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
55%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.65
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.31
6+ Goals
13%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 25% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.95
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
18%
3.85
X/2
9%
11.8
X/X
10%
5.3
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
6%
9.3
2/X
5%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Villarreal win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.3pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 20%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
1.96/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.62
+8% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
406 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
18.0 Crosses 18.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.89 xG 1.59
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
452 Passes 233
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
22.10.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
30.04.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 2-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
21.12.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 5-2 HT 2-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
21.04.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
30.09.2020 Villarreal Villarreal 3-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
3-0
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.52 xG 0.50
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
403 Passes 207
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal swept aside Deportivo Alaves 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Villarreal had 63% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 37%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.52 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Villarreal and 1.50 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Deportivo Alaves?

Villarreal 3-0 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 55%, draw 22%, Deportivo Alaves 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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