Cagliari 3-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
51%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.18
Over Pick
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.36
2-3
39%
1.88
4-5
25%
2.96
6+
13%
8.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.25
1/2
12%
21.45
1/X
9%
14.8
X/1
10%
10.1
X/2
11%
4.12
X/X
10%
5.69
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.08
2/X
5%
14.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.45 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
25%
Home Win
21%
+4.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
51%
Away Win
55%
-4.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari The Market 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan The Market 59%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.14/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.12
-6% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -20%
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
274 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 83%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
20.6 Crosses 17.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Milan
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.91 xG 2.26
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
275 Passes 502
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.05.2024 Milan Milan 5-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
02.01.2024 Milan Milan 4-1 HT 2-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTK
27.09.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 1-3 HT 1-2 Milan Milan İTA
19.03.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 0-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
29.08.2021 Milan Milan 4-1 HT 4-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
16.05.2021 Milan Milan 0-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
3-3
AWAY Milan
1.70 xG 3.34
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
350 Passes 454
88% Pass Accuracy 90%
26 Box Touches 28
24 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari and Milan couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Milan at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cagliari had 45% of the ball to Milan's 55%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.70 to 3.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cagliari and 2.83 for Milan.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Milan?

Cagliari 3-3 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 25%, draw 24%, Milan 51%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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