Lucchese 1-1 Legnago Salus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
22%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.88 — our 22% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.6pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Legnago Salus EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.56/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.44
-10% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
438 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Legnago Salus
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.08.2021 Legnago Salus Legnago Salus 3-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucchese
1-1
AWAY Legnago Salus
52% Ball Possession 48%
22 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs Legnago Salus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lucchese and Legnago Salus couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lucchese at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lucchese had 52% of the ball to Legnago Salus's 48%, shots finished 22-10.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs Legnago Salus?

Lucchese 1-1 Legnago Salus in the Italy - Serie C on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs Legnago Salus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lucchese win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 54%, draw 22%, Legnago Salus 24%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lucchese) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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