St. Pauli 0-1 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 Nov 2024

St. Pauli
0-1 HT 0-1
Bayern Münih
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

St. Pauli vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
9.57
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
63%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.66
2-3 Goals
39%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
20.35
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
23.15
1/X
5%
27.0
X/1
4%
26.5
X/2
21%
3.43
X/X
9%
9.56
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
33%
1.35
2/X
7%
28.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.15 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
7%
+8.2pp
21%
Draw
14%
+7.2pp
63%
Away Win
79%
-15.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Pauli v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 84%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -12%
1.38/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.51/1.02
-99% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -24%
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 563 · 86%
41.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.3
17.0 Crosses 19.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5

St. Pauli vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 10
The Meetings
07.05.2011 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-8 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
11.12.2010 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
09.09.2006 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
12.04.2006 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-3 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
06.02.2002 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-1 HT 2-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
18.08.2001 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-0 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1

St. Pauli 0-1 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
0-1
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.08 xG 0.80
25% Ball Possession 75%
3 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 10
197 Passes 741
74% Pass Accuracy 90%
9 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih edged past St. Pauli 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, St. Pauli had 25% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 75%, shots finished 3-13, expected goals 0.08 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for St. Pauli and 3.00 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Bayern Münih?

St. Pauli 0-1 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 16%, draw 21%, Bayern Münih 63%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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