Mainz 05 3-1 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 Nov 2024

Mainz 05
3-1 HT 2-1
Borussia Dortmund
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
37%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.66
2-3 Goals
41%
1.91
4-5 Goals
22%
2.86
6+ Goals
10%
8.01
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.66 — our 27% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✓
25%
5.36
1/2
9%
21.85
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
9%
8.09
X/2
8%
4.66
X/X
12%
5.47
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.48
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 1/1 at 5.36 — our 25% vs market 14.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
26%
+13.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
37%
Away Win
49%
-11.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.7pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 53%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.37/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.31
-12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +1%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 80%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
18.2 Crosses 14.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.31 xG 1.71
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
222 Passes 523
71% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.05.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-0 HT 3-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
19.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
27.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-2 HT 0-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
25.01.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-2 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
16.03.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
16.10.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Mainz 05 3-1 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
3-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.02 xG 0.86
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 2
9 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 0
403 Passes 359
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 saw off Borussia Dortmund 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 23% / 37%) promised a tight game; Mainz 05 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 52% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 48%, shots finished 13-2, expected goals 2.02 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.50 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?

Mainz 05 3-1 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 40%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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