Werder Bremen 2-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.61
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.82
6+ Goals
11%
7.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.01
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.1
X/1
12%
4.03
X/2
13%
10.4
X/X
13%
6.27
2/1
9%
20.3
2/2
10%
7.28
2/X
6%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
58%
-16.7pp
29%
Draw
22%
+6.6pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+10.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.3pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.54/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/2.11
-22% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / -28%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
19.8 Crosses 23.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.82 xG 1.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
401 Passes 284
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.04.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-3 HT 2-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
27.11.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
2-1
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.72 xG 0.72
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
444 Passes 258
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen nicked a narrow win over Holstein Kiel 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Werder Bremen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 60% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 40%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.72 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Werder Bremen and 2.50 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel?

Werder Bremen 2-1 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 41%, draw 29%, Holstein Kiel 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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