Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 9 Nov 2024

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1-1 HT 0-0
Paderborn
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Paderborn Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.95
Over 2.5
57%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.58
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.35
6+ Goals
12%
12.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.35 — our 27% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.99
1/2
9%
33.0
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
14%
4.96
X/2
10%
6.8
X/X
10%
4.63
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
18%
4.68
2/X
7%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.2pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.7pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Paderborn — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
1.60/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.48
+4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
23.8 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Paderborn Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Paderborn
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.85 xG 2.18
46% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
320 Passes 392
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.02.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 4-3 HT 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
19.08.2023 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
03.02.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 4-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
22.07.2022 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 HT 2-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
12.03.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
02.10.2021 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 Paderborn — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
1-1
AWAY Paderborn
0.42 xG 0.57
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
537 Passes 408
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 27
31 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Düsseldorf and Paderborn couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 23% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Fortuna Düsseldorf had 56% of the ball to Paderborn's 44%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.42 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 2.50 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Paderborn?

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Düsseldorf win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%, draw 23%, Paderborn 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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