Lens vs Nantes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lens v Nantes — Team-Based Signals
Lens vs Nantes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 1-0
Nantes
FR1
2-1
HT 1-1
Lens
FRK
3-1
HT 2-1
Nantes
FR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Lens
FR1
2-2
HT 0-2
Nantes
FR1
Lens 3-2 Nantes — Actual Match Statistics
Lens squeezed past Nantes 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lens as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lens had 67% of the ball to Nantes's 33%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 2.99 to 1.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lens's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lens and 0.83 for Nantes.
What was the final score of Lens vs Nantes?
Lens 3-2 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lens vs Nantes?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lens 46%, draw 33%, Nantes 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.