Hatayspor 3-1 Gaziantep FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.63
6+ Goals
11%
14.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 27% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.16
1/2
11%
33.0
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
18%
4.91
X/2
11%
6.29
X/X
11%
4.55
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
9%
4.48
2/X
10%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hatayspor EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
1.07/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.45
-27% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
21.3 Crosses 14.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hatayspor
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Gaziantep FK
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.09
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
390 Passes 268
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-1 HT 1-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
10.01.2024 Hatayspor Hatayspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
01.02.2023 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 4-1 HT 1-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
20.08.2022 Hatayspor Hatayspor 1-2 HT 1-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
07.03.2022 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-2 HT 1-2 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
18.10.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 2-1 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hatayspor
3-1
AWAY Gaziantep FK
2.43 xG 0.99
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
226 Passes 360
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 25
25 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hatayspor saw off Gaziantep FK 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hatayspor as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hatayspor had 43% of the ball to Gaziantep FK's 57%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.43 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gaziantep FK led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hatayspor and 1.67 for Gaziantep FK.

What was the final score of Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?

Hatayspor 3-1 Gaziantep FK in the Turkey - Super League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hatayspor vs Gaziantep FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hatayspor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hatayspor 43%, draw 26%, Gaziantep FK 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hatayspor), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hatayspor) ✓ BTTS Yes
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