AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AZ Alkmaar v PSV Eindhoven — Team-Based Signals
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-4
HT 0-3
PSV Eindhoven
HOL
1-2
HT 0-0
PSV Eindhoven
HOL
0-1
HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
AZ Alkmaar 1-5 PSV Eindhoven — Actual Match Statistics
PSV Eindhoven ran out comfortable winners over AZ Alkmaar 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 47% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 53%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.56 to 2.39.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.50 for PSV Eindhoven.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
AZ Alkmaar 1-5 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 27%, draw 22%, PSV Eindhoven 51%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.