PSV Eindhoven 2-2 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
25%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.98
4-5 Goals
25%
2.57
6+ Goals
12%
6.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.72
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.85
X/1
17%
3.84
X/2
12%
14.2
X/X
8%
7.53
2/1
10%
19.95
2/2
8%
9.89
2/X
6%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-12.1pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.3pp
25%
Away Win
15%
+9.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.7pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 18%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.96/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.94
+32% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -1%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
18.0 Crosses 8.8
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
4W-0D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.05 xG 0.98
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
484 Passes 296
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
06.04.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
17.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-4 HT 0-3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
28.05.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
12.11.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 0-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
05.02.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
2-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
2.15 xG 1.42
79% Ball Possession 21%
17 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 1
669 Passes 137
88% Pass Accuracy 67%
38 Box Touches 16
35 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was PSV Eindhoven at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 79% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 21%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 2.15 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.00 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?

PSV Eindhoven 2-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 54%, draw 21%, AZ Alkmaar 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5
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