PEC Zwolle 0-1 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 11 Jan 2025

PEC Zwolle
0-1 HT 0-1
NEC Nijmegen
📅11/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
11.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.3
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
27.0
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
15%
6.46
X/2
12%
5.38
X/X
11%
4.6
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
14%
3.31
2/X
6%
12.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
32%
+8.3pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.7pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-4.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.5pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PEC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 43%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.40/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.48
+20% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 78%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
20.0 Crosses 19.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.4

PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
0W-2D-4L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.09 xG 1.44
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
342 Passes 351
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 4-3 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOK
24.08.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-0 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
14.04.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
09.12.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
05.02.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
20.08.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-0 HT 2-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

PEC Zwolle 0-1 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
0-1
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.41 xG 1.02
62% Ball Possession 38%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
466 Passes 242
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen squeezed past PEC Zwolle 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was PEC Zwolle at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 62% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 38%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.41 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.17 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?

PEC Zwolle 0-1 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a PEC Zwolle win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 41%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 35%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PEC Zwolle) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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