NEC Nijmegen 4-3 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.25
6+ Goals
13%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.13
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.7
X/1
17%
3.87
X/2
7%
9.52
X/X
12%
5.63
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
13%
7.25
2/X
4%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.4pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.9pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.3pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 24%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
3.94/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/1.52
+64% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / +13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.2 Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.23 xG 1.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
352 Passes 370
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-0 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
14.04.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
09.12.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
05.02.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
20.08.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-0 HT 2-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
19.12.2017 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
4-3
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.89 xG 1.88
50% Ball Possession 50%
23 Total Shots 16
10 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
372 Passes 348
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 20
38 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen squeezed past PEC Zwolle 4-3. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 50% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 50%, shots finished 23-16, expected goals 1.89 to 1.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.00 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?

NEC Nijmegen 4-3 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 46%, draw 27%, PEC Zwolle 27%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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