Excelsior 2-1 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 29 Oct 2024

Excelsior
2-1 HT 2-1
VVV-Venlo
📅29/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - KNVB Cup – 2024/2025

Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
27%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
64%
-14.6pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.9pp
28%
Away Win
16%
+11.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v VVV-Venlo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
2.71/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.66
+35% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +77%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.0 Crosses 18.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
4W-1D-1L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.58 xG 1.12
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
398 Passes 297
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 4-0 HT 3-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
29.04.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
15.10.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 3-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
09.03.2019 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-0 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
29.09.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 1-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL
10.03.2018 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-3 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL

Excelsior 2-1 VVV-Venlo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
2-1
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.76 xG 1.19
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
378 Passes 295
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior edged past VVV-Venlo 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Excelsior had 53% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 47%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 1.76 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Excelsior and 0.83 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo?

Excelsior 2-1 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 50%, draw 23%, VVV-Venlo 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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