Excelsior 4-0 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Sep 2024

Excelsior
4-0 HT 3-0
VVV-Venlo
📅16/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.43
Over 2.5
62%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.15
2-3 Goals
36%
1.96
4-5 Goals
29%
2.73
6+ Goals
13%
6.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.89
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.85
X/1
18%
3.94
X/2
8%
11.4
X/X
8%
6.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.8
2/2
11%
7.95
2/X
6%
16.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-2.8pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.6pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.5pp
38%
Under 2.5
38%
+0.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
62%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v VVV-Venlo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
2.19/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.73
+39% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
22.0 Crosses 15.8
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.6

Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-1D-2L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.18 xG 1.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
371 Passes 296
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.04.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
15.10.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 3-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
09.03.2019 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-0 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
29.09.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 1-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL
10.03.2018 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-3 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
30.09.2017 Excelsior Excelsior 0-2 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL

Excelsior 4-0 VVV-Venlo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
4-0
AWAY VVV-Venlo
2.64 xG 0.66
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
517 Passes 266
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 8
15 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior ran out comfortable winners over VVV-Venlo 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Excelsior had 62% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 38%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 2.64 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Excelsior and 1.17 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo?

Excelsior 4-0 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 58%, draw 19%, VVV-Venlo 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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