Emmen 3-3 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Sep 2024

Emmen
3-3 HT 1-1
Vitesse
📅16/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Emmen vs Vitesse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.4
6+ Goals
11%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 28% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.62
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
14%
4.41
X/2
9%
7.51
X/X
12%
4.91
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
11%
5.5
2/X
6%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Emmen v Vitesse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emmen EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +56% / +56%
1.63/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.34
-23% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / –
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
367 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 73%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
24.3 Crosses 13.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Emmen vs Vitesse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emmen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Vitesse
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.42 xG 1.35
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
425 Passes 334
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.02.2023 Emmen Emmen 2-2 HT 1-2 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
22.10.2022 Vitesse Vitesse 2-1 HT 2-0 Emmen Emmen HOL
16.01.2021 Emmen Emmen 1-4 HT 0-2 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
08.11.2020 Vitesse Vitesse 3-1 HT 3-0 Emmen Emmen HOL
26.01.2020 Vitesse Vitesse 1-1 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL
03.11.2019 Emmen Emmen 2-1 HT 2-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL

Emmen 3-3 Vitesse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emmen
3-3
AWAY Vitesse
1.59 xG 1.96
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 10
11 Corners 8
270 Passes 391
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Emmen vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emmen and Vitesse couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Emmen at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Emmen had 43% of the ball to Vitesse's 57%, shots finished 18-20, expected goals 1.59 to 1.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitesse led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Emmen and 2.17 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of Emmen vs Vitesse?

Emmen 3-3 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emmen vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emmen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Emmen 45%, draw 24%, Vitesse 31%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Emmen) ✗ BTTS No
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