Heracles 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
3.61
6+ Goals
12%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 31% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.99
1/2
5%
27.5
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
15%
6.92
X/2
7%
4.94
X/X
17%
4.3
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
28%
3.07
2/X
4%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+0.8pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.8pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 46%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.33/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.14
+2% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +42%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
21.7 Crosses 16.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.02 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 Passes 314
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.08.2024 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
06.04.2024 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
02.12.2023 Heracles Heracles 0-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
15.05.2022 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
21.08.2021 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
21.03.2021 Heracles Heracles 1-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
1-1
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.19 xG 2.87
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 12
8 Corners 4
417 Passes 282
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 33
35 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 30% / 30% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Heracles had 58% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 42%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 1.19 to 2.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Heracles and 1.17 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Heracles 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Heracles 30%, draw 30%, Sparta Rotterdam 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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