Ajax 2-1 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.16
Draw
17%
7.78
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
3.46
Over 2.5
68%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
8.24
2-3 Goals
33%
2.32
4-5 Goals
34%
2.31
6+ Goals
17%
3.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.24
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
34.5
X/1
18%
3.6
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
6%
14.35
2/1
7%
21.6
2/2
4%
27.0
2/X
5%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
82%
-12.0pp
17%
Draw
10%
+6.4pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+5.6pp
32%
Under 2.5
25%
+7.0pp
68%
Over 2.5
75%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 9%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
2.85/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/2.43
+15% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +4%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
505 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
50.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
23.6 Crosses 10.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
6W-0D-0L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.08 xG 1.07
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
577 Passes 235
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
48 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-2 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
21.01.2024 Ajax Ajax 4-1 HT 2-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
06.12.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-3 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
30.09.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-3 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
12.02.2023 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
22.10.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-4 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-1
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
2.46 xG 0.95
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
566 Passes 364
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
36 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ajax vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax edged past RKC Waalwijk 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (68%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ajax had 60% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 40%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.46 to 0.95 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ajax's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Ajax and 1.17 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of Ajax vs RKC Waalwijk?

Ajax 2-1 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Ajax 71%, draw 17%, RKC Waalwijk 13%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5
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