AZ Alkmaar 1-2 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
49%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.71
2-3 Goals
35%
1.91
4-5 Goals
29%
2.84
6+ Goals
14%
7.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.72
1/2
7%
22.3
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
11%
7.31
X/2
11%
4.9
X/X
10%
5.48
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
30%
2.69
2/X
5%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.1pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
49%
Away Win
45%
+3.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.1pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 49%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.33/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.16
-6% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
11.6 Crosses 17.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2W-0D-4L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.95 xG 1.85
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
352 Passes 421
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
17.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-4 HT 0-3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
28.05.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
12.11.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 0-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
05.02.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
11.09.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-3 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-2
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
26% Ball Possession 74%
5 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 3
190 Passes 704
71% Pass Accuracy 91%
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven edged past AZ Alkmaar 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 26% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 74%, shots finished 5-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.50 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?

AZ Alkmaar 1-2 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 29%, draw 22%, PSV Eindhoven 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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