Shimizu S-Pulse 1-4 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 9 Nov 2025

📅09/11/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
43%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.92
2-3 Goals
44%
1.95
4-5 Goals
23%
2.72
6+ Goals
10%
7.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.01
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
22.7
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
10%
6.67
X/2
16%
5.74
X/X
12%
5.71
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
17%
3.18
2/X
6%
12.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-1.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
43%
Away Win
40%
+2.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.6pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
1.31/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.31
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 80%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
17.0 Crosses 18.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.33 xG 1.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
346 Passes 404
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 4-2 HT 2-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
26.06.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
12.03.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-3 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
04.12.2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
10.03.2021 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 1-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
14.11.2020 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1-4
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
2.03 xG 3.84
63% Ball Possession 37%
22 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 2
599 Passes 338
92% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 24
40 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka ran out comfortable winners over Shimizu S-Pulse 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cerezo Osaka as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 63% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 37%, shots finished 22-15, expected goals 2.03 to 3.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 2.00 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?

Shimizu S-Pulse 1-4 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 33%, draw 24%, Cerezo Osaka 43%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
9 Nov 2025
07:00 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis →
08:00 Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo Analysis →
08:00 Kyoto Sanga vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →
09:00 Gamba Osaka vs Vissel Kobe Analysis →