Ajax II 2-0 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 9 Dec 2024

📅09/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
42%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.96
Over 2.5
54%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.35
No
47%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
6.68
2-3 Goals
38%
2.12
4-5 Goals
25%
2.35
6+ Goals
11%
4.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.45
1/2
6%
20.05
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
7.79
X/2
18%
5.25
X/X
11%
6.57
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
18%
2.59
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · X/1 at 7.79 — our 15% vs market 9.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-4.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
30%
+15.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
70%
-15.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
70%
-17.1pp
47%
BTTS No
30%
+17.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 50%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.53/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.14
+39% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
10.7 Crosses 21.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
3W-1D-2L
AWAY De Graafschap
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.38 xG 2.12
57% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
412 Passes 271
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.03.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-2 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
21.08.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
13.01.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-0 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
22.08.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 5-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
06.05.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
26.11.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-3 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
2-0
AWAY De Graafschap
1.67 xG 0.66
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
311 Passes 419
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 29
4 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax II saw off De Graafschap 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Ajax II had 43% of the ball to De Graafschap's 57%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.67 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ajax II and 1.33 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs De Graafschap?

Ajax II 2-0 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 09/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated an De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 34%, draw 24%, De Graafschap 42%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
9 Dec 2024
22:00 PSV II vs Roda Analysis →
22:00 Utrecht II vs FC Eindhoven Analysis →