PSV II 2-3 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 9 Dec 2024

PSV II
2-3 HT 1-0
Roda
📅09/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
45%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.61
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.64
2-3 Goals
40%
2.0
4-5 Goals
27%
2.47
6+ Goals
13%
5.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.01
1/2 EV+ ✓
11%
20.1
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
13%
9.54
X/2
12%
4.61
X/X
11%
6.35
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.2
2/X
6%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.1 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
24%
+7.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
45%
Away Win
53%
-8.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.7pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 57%
+2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -9%
1.13/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.08
+27% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
338 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 79%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
12.9 Crosses 19.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Roda
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.98 xG 1.56
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
358 Passes 391
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.04.2024 PSV II PSV II 2-3 HT 2-2 Roda Roda HOL2
08.12.2023 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
03.04.2023 PSV II PSV II 5-1 HT 3-0 Roda Roda HOL2
09.09.2022 Roda Roda 1-1 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
18.03.2022 PSV II PSV II 3-3 HT 3-2 Roda Roda HOL2
15.10.2021 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
2-3
AWAY Roda
0.45 xG 1.53
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 6
361 Passes 260
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
10 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PSV II vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda nicked a narrow win over PSV II 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Roda as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV II had 57% of the ball to Roda's 43%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.45 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for PSV II and 2.00 for Roda.

What was the final score of PSV II vs Roda?

PSV II 2-3 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 09/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split PSV II 31%, draw 24%, Roda 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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