De Graafschap 0-2 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 11 Mar 2024

📅11/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.98
Over 2.5
60%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.42
2-3 Goals
39%
2.24
4-5 Goals
27%
2.43
6+ Goals
14%
4.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.77
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.95
X/1
14%
4.12
X/2
12%
12.65
X/X
10%
7.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
17.95
2/2
9%
7.93
2/X
6%
16.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.95 — our 12% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-13.9pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.6pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.9pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -2%
1.90/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/2.06
-15% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
26.3 Crosses 11.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ajax II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.19 xG 1.23
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
271 Passes 398
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.08.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
13.01.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-0 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
22.08.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 5-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
06.05.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
26.11.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-3 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
07.05.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
0-2
AWAY Ajax II
1.67 xG 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
23 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
311 Passes 390
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
49 Box Touches 9
35 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax II saw off De Graafschap 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, De Graafschap had 46% of the ball to Ajax II's 54%, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 1.67 to 1.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for De Graafschap and 1.83 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Ajax II?

De Graafschap 0-2 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 49%, draw 24%, Ajax II 27%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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