Helmond Sport 3-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 11 Mar 2024

Helmond Sport
3-1 HT 1-0
AZ Alkmaar II
📅11/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.87
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
22%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.87 — our 28% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
2.89
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
25%
5.15
X/2
12%
6.8
X/X
10%
5.55
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
15%
4.24
2/X
8%
12.7
Value flag · X/1 at 5.15 — our 25% vs market 14.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.0pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Helmond Sport v AZ Alkmaar II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.52/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.52
-17% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.7 Crosses 11.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.3

Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 1.01
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
360 Passes 401
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.11.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 2-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
23.01.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
12.08.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-3 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
29.04.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
13.08.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
02.04.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2

Helmond Sport 3-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
3-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.32 xG 1.45
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
188 Passes 531
74% Pass Accuracy 92%
11 Box Touches 35
9 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport saw off AZ Alkmaar II 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Helmond Sport as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 31% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 69%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 1.32 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.33 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Helmond Sport 3-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 41%, draw 26%, AZ Alkmaar II 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Helmond Sport), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Over 2.5
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