PSV II 2-3 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 11 Mar 2024

PSV II
2-3 HT 0-1
Groningen
📅11/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

PSV II vs Groningen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.48
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
49%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.59
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.71
2-3 Goals
43%
2.03
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
10%
6.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.38
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
19.35
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1
15%
11.1
X/2
12%
4.1
X/X
5%
6.85
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.92
2/X
9%
15.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.35 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
20%
+10.8pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
49%
Away Win
59%
-10.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.7pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV II v Groningen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 62%
+5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.04/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.63
+15% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +88%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 81%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
13.2 Crosses 20.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.1

PSV II vs Groningen Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Groningen
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.45 xG 2.48
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
443 Passes 372
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 39
11 Crosses 16
The Meetings
18.09.2023 Groningen Groningen 4-0 HT 4-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2

PSV II 2-3 Groningen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
2-3
AWAY Groningen
0.63 xG 1.90
59% Ball Possession 41%
5 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
473 Passes 287
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Box Touches 38
10 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH PSV II vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen nicked a narrow win over PSV II 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV II had 59% of the ball to Groningen's 41%, shots finished 5-19, expected goals 0.63 to 1.90 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Groningen's control.

What was the final score of PSV II vs Groningen?

PSV II 2-3 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split PSV II 30%, draw 21%, Groningen 49%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Groningen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
11 Mar 2024
22:00 Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II Analysis →
22:00 ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht Analysis →
22:00 FC Eindhoven vs Utrecht II Analysis →
22:00 Emmen vs FC Oss Analysis →
22:00 De Graafschap vs Ajax II Analysis →