ADO Den Haag 2-2 Dordrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 11 Mar 2024

📅11/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.61
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.93
2-3 Goals
40%
2.06
4-5 Goals
24%
2.58
6+ Goals
14%
5.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.13
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.15
X/1
16%
4.37
X/2
7%
9.43
X/X
10%
6.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.35
2/2
10%
6.03
2/X
7%
14.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.35 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.7pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.5pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+2.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.7pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.72/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.88
-2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
24.3 Crosses 17.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Dordrecht
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.00 xG 0.68
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
399 Passes 269
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-2 HT 2-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
12.05.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 1-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
06.01.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-1 HT 0-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
25.03.2022 Dordrecht Dordrecht 3-1 HT 1-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
26.11.2021 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 5-1 HT 4-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
17.07.2018 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 0-2 HT 0-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
2-2
AWAY Dordrecht
0.71 xG 1.27
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
266 Passes 245
71% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADO Den Haag and Dordrecht couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was ADO Den Haag at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 53% of the ball to Dordrecht's 47%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 0.71 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.67 for Dordrecht.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht?

ADO Den Haag 2-2 Dordrecht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs Dordrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 49%, draw 26%, Dordrecht 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (ADO Den Haag) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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