Lucchese 2-3 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 10 Jan 2025

📅10/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.53
Draw
24%
2.88
Away
45%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.67
Over 2.5
51%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.6
2-3 Goals
49%
1.71
4-5 Goals
15%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
19.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
24%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
36%
-4.5pp
24%
Draw
31%
-6.8pp
44%
Away Win
33%
+11.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.9pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 37%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.23/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.89
+6% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -42%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
208 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
4W-1D-1L
AWAY SPAL
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.09.2024 SPAL SPAL 2-3 HT 1-3 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
04.02.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 2-1 HT 1-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
09.11.2023 SPAL SPAL 0-2 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTCK
11.10.2023 SPAL SPAL 2-2 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
23.09.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-2 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
06.09.2015 SPAL SPAL 3-0 HT 1-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucchese
2-3
AWAY SPAL
47% Ball Possession 53%
27 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SPAL edged past Lucchese 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had SPAL as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Lucchese had 47% of the ball to SPAL's 53%, shots finished 27-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lucchese had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lucchese and 1.50 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs SPAL?

Lucchese 2-3 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 10/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated an SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 31%, draw 24%, SPAL 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SPAL), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (SPAL) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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